Neutral on NIC

Research evidence excerpt

Neutral on NIC

Update

August 4, 2026 12:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MNickel Industries | Asia Pacific Shannon J Sinha

Equity Analyst

Neutral on NIC Shannon.Sinha@morganstanley.comRahul Anand, CFA +61 2 9770-1334

What’s Changed R.Anand@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1136

Michael A Stancliff

Nickel Industries (NIC.AX) From To Research Associate

Price Target A$0.65 A$0.80 Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

NIC has a strengthened its position through revised ENC

acquisition terms, HPAL investments, and an improved balance

sheet, but MS's below-consensus nickel price outlook drives a

more conservative base case. Even considering nickel price and Nickel Industries (NIC.AX, NIC AU)

production upside, we view NIC as fairly valued. Australia Materials | Australia

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Key Takeaways Price target A$0.80

Up/downside to price target (%) (2)

Revised ENC acquisition terms increased NIC's ownership to 46% (prev agreed Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026) A$0.82

55%), reducing the remaining acquisition cost & preserving balance sheet 52-Week Range A$1.13-0.66

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 4,341

flexibility Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$2,499

EV, curr (mn) US$3,754

Investment in TMI/CNE HPAL has potential to increase long-term growth & Avg daily trading value (mn) A$9

crystalise value at Sampala, but raises medium-term capital required (subject to Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

close) EPS (US$)** (0.01) 0.02 0.04 0.01

Prior EPS (US$)** 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.11

NIC refinanced its balance sheet through a US$800m senior notes issuance and a EPS (US$)§ 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.16

US$400m term loan, improving liquidity and extending debt maturities Revenue, net (US$ mn) 1,649 1,951 2,578 2,396

EBITDA (US$ mn) 238 450 678 476