MPLX LP (MPLX.N): It‘s a Waiting Game

Research evidence excerpt

MPLX LP (MPLX.N): It‘s a Waiting Game

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04 Aug 2026 07:44:39 ET │ 10 pages

MPLX LP (MPLX.N)

It's a Waiting Game

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral MPLX reported adj. EBITDA of $1.78bln, just above the $1.75bln Citi

estimate and Street mean (FactSet) and representing ~5% YoY growth. Price (03 Aug 26 16:00) US$58.91

The primary update this quarter is a $0.5bln increase to the 2026 growth Target price US$55.00

capex budget (now $2.9bln), which the press release attributes to Expected share price return -6.6%

accelerated execution of the Gulf Coast Fracs. We suspect this is likely Expected dividend yield 7.8%

tied to long-lead items as expected ISDs remain unchanged (2028 for Frac Expected total return 1.1%

1 and 2029 for Frac 2). Crude and Products Logistics drove the beat on

Market Cap US$59,778M stronger tariffs relative to our model, particularly for Crude. Natgas and

NGL came in slightly below our estimates, though volumes largely showed

sequential growth with both Rockies and Marcellus/Utica gathering

volumes well above our estimates. MPLX continues to point toward 2H- Spiro DounisAC

weighted growth in 2026 underpinned by Titan, the BANGL expansion, +1-212-816-6926

Harmon Creek III, and several JV pipelines entering service. No change to spiro.dounis@citi.com

the buyback cadence with $50mm repurchased.

Douglas Irwin

+1-212-816-9525

Implications — We expect a relatively neutral reaction. Solid quarter but the focus douglas.irwin@citi.com

likely remains on an ability to execute on the second half growth story. Notably,

Blackcomb appears to be running earlier than we initially expected. We'll be paying Charles Bryant

attention for commentary on this morning's call, though MPLX isn't the operator and +1-212-816-3284

may not be able to provide much more detail.