Wafer price hike expectations overestimated; Stay EW

Research evidence excerpt

Wafer price hike expectations overestimated; Stay EW

Idea

July 29, 2026 01:22 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+MGlobalWafers Co Ltd | Asia Pacific Charlie Chan

Equity Analyst

Wafer price hike expectations Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.comDaniel Yen, CFA +886 2 2730-1725

Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863

overestimated; Stay EW Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

What’s Changed Equity Analyst

GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO) From To Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7310

Price Target NT$750.00 NT$900.00

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Tiffany Yeh

Equity AnalystWe believe some investor expectations for LTA price hikes into

Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com +886 2 7712-3032

2027 are too high, although raw wafer industry fundamentals

Lucas Wang

Research Associateare indeed improving. Stay EW but raise PT to NT$900.

Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2875

We expect 2027 LTA prices to rise by 10-30%, lower than some bullish street Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

expectation of >30%: Early this year, we noted ongoing raw wafer price hikes Ethan Jia

alongside demand recovery. However, this year’s increase comes mostly from the ResearchEthan.Jia@morganstanley.comAssociate +852 3963-2287

spot market, while LTA pricing remains stable. Our industry checks suggest LTA

pricing could start to rise in 2027 (or remove the LTA discount) by 10-30%. LTA

negotiations still occur once a year and should finalize by late 3Q26 or early 4Q26.

However, our findings are still below some bullish investors’ expectations of 10-20%

hikes per quarter in 2027 or >30% annually. We therefore maintain EW.

GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO, 6488 TT)

What could be different this time from prior up-cycle in 2021-2022 when LTAs

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