Arkema (AKE.PA): Revising estimates post 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Arkema (AKE.PA): Revising estimates post 2Q26

Equity Research

3 August 2026 | 10:06PM GST

We update our estimates for Arkema post 2Q26 results (30 July). Our FY26 EBITDA Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

+44(20)7552-5984 |

estimate increases by 2% whilst for 2027/28, our Adj. EBITDA estimates fall by 3% as georgina.fraser@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

we factor in a more muted volume pickup in 2027 alongside negative pricing. The

Gabriel Simoes

upgrade to our FY26 Adj. EBITDA is driven primarily by Coatings Solutions and +44(20)7051-6922 |

Adhesive Solutions, which beat consensus by 30%/14% at 2Q26 as pricing actions gabriel.simoes@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

came in ahead of expectations and margins benefitted from growth flowing through Marcus von Scheele

the higher-margin Sartomer business. This is partly offset by Advanced Materials, +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

where we now forecast weaker earnings in Performance Additives as the ongoing Goldman Sachs International

Wardconflict in the Middle East continues to weigh on volumes. We do not see this as Thomas | +44(20)7051-2527

sufficiently offset by HPP, which came in below our expectations at 2Q, and we now thomas.ward@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

forecast softer volumes in 2H. For 2027/28, the reduction to our Adj. EBITDA

estimates is led by Advanced Materials, where we see prices normalising in 2027.

At group level, we are +1%/-1%/+1% vs. Visible Alpha Consensus for FY26-28E Adj.

EBITDA. Our FY26 Adj. EBITDA estimate of €1.28bn falls broadly in line with company

guidance for slight EBITDA growth at constant currencies in FY26 (FY25 EBITDA was

€1.25bn). Our price target falls to €62 (from €64) on the back of these estimate

changes. There is no change to our investment thesis or Neutral rating.