The Volatility Arbiter: How China Policy Shapes Global Commodity Risk

Research evidence excerpt

The Volatility Arbiter: How China Policy Shapes Global Commodity Risk

Goldman Sachs Commodity Analyst

refining of critical metals, including rare earths, lithium and aluminium (Exhibit 7). As

it expanded exports, China pushed global prices for several rare earths below the

marginal cost of other producers (Exhibit 9), often forcing them out of the market.

This concentrated supply in China, consistent with the concentration phase of the

Commodity Control Cycle (Exhibit 8). Once China established dominance,

restrictions of critical metals exports created ex-China shortages and sharply higher

ex-China prices, including for antimony (Exhibit 10), germanium, tungsten (Exhibit

11), and yttrium, which recently traded at roughly 20 times the domestic China price

in ex-China markets. This is consistent with the leverage phase of the Commodity

Control Cycle2.3

n Investment implications.

a. Include metals in inflation hedges. Energy has a larger weight in inflation

baskets, but critical metals also belong in broad commodity hedges because

China policy is more likely to raise metals volatility.

b. TTF is a better Hormuz hedge than crude oil. Lower China natural gas

inventories versus crude support our view that TTF has more asymmetric

upside than crude in the 2026-2027 winter if Hormuz disruptions persist.

c. Gold offers an attractive entry point. Re-accelerating central bank gold

demand, led by China, should help gold prices rebound despite likely

temporary downside price pressure from energy and rates markets.

China Policy Tends to Reduce Price Volatility in Crude Oil, LNG, and Gold but Amplify

Volatility in Critical Metals

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2 Rare Earths are primarily used in high-performance permanent magnets (especially Neodymium and