Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH): Near-term outlook not as bad as feared, owing to safe harbor + Europe; SST customer traction potential next catalyst; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH): Near-term outlook not as bad as feared, owing to safe harbor + Europe; SST customer traction potential next catalyst; Buy

Goldman Sachs Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH)

n 3Q26 guidance relatively inline as 2H26 outlook remains intact. ENPH guided

3Q26 revenue of $290mn-$320mn, with the midpoint inline with GSe/consensus of

$294mn/$304mn. Importantly, this guidance includes ~$75mn of safe harbor

activity as well as ~$15mn of undershipping as compared to true demand, and thus

implies modest underlying sell-through growth when compared to the 2Q26 results.

We note that the revenue guidance is about 70% booked at the midpoint, and also

includes ~$10mn of small commercial US volumes. Non-GAAP gross margins in 3Q26

are expected to be 44%-47%, which includes a ~2% impact from tariffs, compared

to 46.8% in 2Q26. Additionally, ENPH guided battery shipments to increase to 130

MWh-150 MWh in 3Q26, up from 114 MWh in 2Q26. Lastly, non-GAAP operating

expenses in 3Q26 are expected at $76mn-$80mn, which compares to $80mn in

2Q26. We note that the company has booked $1.1bn in safe harbor activity,

including $200mn through the 5% rule and $876mn through the physical work test,

providing enhanced visibility for near-term results. Looking ahead, ENPH anticipates

another $61mn in safe harbor activity in 4Q26, which we believe is well ahead of

expectations and could imply ongoing momentum with TPO customers and potential

share gains.

n New products gaining traction amid recent FCC ban on inverter imports. ENPH’s

prepaid lease product through Propel continues to see ~200 net originations per

week with 75% battery attach rates, but recently expanded to 6 states from 4, with

plans to reach a total of 12 states, and management reiterated a target of reaching