S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): Strong 2Q with Ratings and Indices offset by ongoing MI and Energy uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): Strong 2Q with Ratings and Indices offset by ongoing MI and Energy uncertainty

Goldman Sachs S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)

Intelligence revenue increased 6.0% y/y, above our estimate of 5.6%, while Energy

revenue rose 2.6%, below our forecast of 4.0%. Indices revenue expanded 19.7% y/y,

in-line with our estimate of 20.0%.

Margins outperform estimates. Operating margins ex. Mobility expanded 200 bps y/y

to 54.3% driven by higher margin revenue mix and operating leverage, and

outperformed our forecast of 54.1% and consensus of 53.6%, with EPS of $4.83.

2Q 2026 Positives / Negatives

Positives:

n Ratings growth increasingly tied to AI infrastructure financing, M&A and a

multi-year refinancing cycle. Debt issuance increased 25% y/y in 2Q, supported by

investment-grade issuance tied to AI infrastructure and data center capex, M&A

activity and strength across high yield, bank loans, structured finance and private

markets. Hyperscaler issuance reached approximately $169bn in 1H 2026, well

ahead of SPGI’s initial assumption of ~$200bn for full year 2026, prompting the

company to raise its outlook to $250-300bn of hyperscaler issuance this year. SPGI

also expects double-digit growth in M&A-related issuance for 2026 and highlighted

an $11tn debt maturity wall over the next 4-5 years, which should support

refinancing activity for several years. Importantly, the company noted that strong

issuance has not come at the expense of future demand, with underlying maturity

schedules remaining robust.

n Indices continues to take share as benchmark adoption broadens. Indices

revenue grew 20% y/y in 2Q, while the business generated its best quarter of net

inflows on record. SPGI saw more than $600bn of net inflows over the last year and