Credit Notes: Expectations for Hyperscaler Debt Issuance: A Top-Down Approach

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Notes: Expectations for Hyperscaler Debt Issuance: A Top-Down Approach

Credit Strategy Research

27 July 2026 | 1:21PM EDT

Credit Notes: Expectations for Hyperscaler Debt Issuance: A Top-Down

Approach

The scale and scope of AI-related debt supply has been a dominant investment Amanda Lynam, CPA

+1(212)934-1895 |

theme this year. Over the past several weeks, in particular, the topic has attracted amanda.lynam@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

interest from a wide range of market participants, across asset classes. We recently

Shamshad Ali

provided a granular look at the distribution of the year-to-date (YTD) AI-related +1(212)902-6712 |

debt supply, across markets (IG, HY, loans), sub-sector, and currency. shamshad.ali@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Sara GrutGiven the multi-year nature of the AI buildout, however, a key question is how the +44(20)7774-8622 | sara.grut@gs.com

pace and distribution of AI-related debt issuance will trend over the next few years. Goldman Sachs International

Spencer Rogers, CFA

In this Credit Notes, we frame our expectations for AI-related debt issuance, focusing +1(801)884-1104spencer.rogers@gs.com|

on the hyperscalers and the data center / project finance categories. With the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

important caveat that this analysis is subject to change as the AI investment cycle

unfolds, our process follows three key steps.

1. Frame the hyperscaler CapEx trajectory. We start with our GIR equity research

colleagues’ CapEx forecasts for the five hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet,

Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle), from FY2026 to FY2030, as well as the actual

CapEx spending from FY2025. We match these against actual and forecast cash

flow from operations (CFO) to assess a directional trend between key sources

and uses of cash.

2.