Metso (METSO.HE): 2Q26 shows up-cycle in Minerals is underway; reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Metso (METSO.HE): 2Q26 shows up-cycle in Minerals is underway; reiterate Buy

Equity Research

28 July 2026 | 10:01PM BST

Metso (METSO.HE): 2Q26 shows up-cycle in Minerals is underway;

reiterate Buy

We reiterate our Buy rating on Metso with an increased 12m TP of €19.50 that Christian Hinderaker, CFA

+44(20)7774-7366 |

reflects our constructive view on the group’s product portfolio and market christian.hinderaker@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

positioning in an OE up-cycle. +47% OOG in Minerals OE drove an 8.5% group

Hollie Cooper

order beat vs GSe at 2Q26, a clear proof-point that an OE up-cycle is underway. With +44(20)7051-0956 |

higher volumes and operating efficiencies, both segments also beat on margins, hollie.cooper@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

adding conviction to our view that Metso will meet its >18% 2028 margin target a

year early. We expect ongoing margin improvements to support a step change in FCF,

modelling an 11.5% average FCF margin over FY26-28E (nearly double the 6.1%

delivered over FY22-25). Though Metso disappointed on FCF at 2Q, progress over

the last year is encouraging: the group tripled its FCF to €635m in FY25 (vs €171m in

FY24), generating a 12.1% FCF margin that reinforces the conviction in our view that

Metso can deliver >€2bn of FCF over the next 3 years. Accordingly, we see upside

risks to FY26/27 consensus earnings, with added scope for Metso to further boost its

growth through M&A, with the group otherwise reaching net cash by 2029 (from

1.2x FY25).

Estimate Changes: We raise our FY26 OOG forecasts by +2.2ppts, following the

+7.9% Visible Alpha Consensus order beat at 2Q26. With the order strength led by

21% OOG in Minerals, we increase our Minerals OOG expectations for the rest of the

year. Overall, we raise adj.