India: US$9bn Oil Exploration Support = Super-cycle Picking Up Steam

Research evidence excerpt

India: US$9bn Oil Exploration Support = Super-cycle Picking Up Steam

Idea

August 4, 2026 12:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MEnergy Security | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

India: US$9bn Oil Exploration Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ +65 6834-6719

Pranitha Shetty

Research AssociateSupport = Super-cycle Picking Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

Hinal Choudhary

Research AssociateUp Steam

Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

India allocated its highest ever support for offshore exploration:

US$9bn, to be spent by 2031. This helps exploration of the 16bn

barrels of reserves in India and is merely a tenth of the potential

investments that we estimate will be deployed in upstream

India Oil & Gas

energy. ONGC and OIL India benefit. Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways Exhibit 2 : A Super-cycle Recharges – A

India has provided incentives to improve energy security from coal bed methane Snapshot by 2030

to gas pipelines to biofuels. Now comes the largest support for oil exploration.

Offshore exploration in high-risk areas will pick up. Assuming ~60 wells drilled in

ultra-deepwater basins like the Andaman Sea, US$4.2bn of support is needed.

India's oil reserve replacement ratio declined to 0.5x in 2024, the lowest in a

decade. This support has the potential to unlock 4.2bn boe of energy reserves.

Global oil majors are enhancing exploration portfolios. Hence, the timing to

attract foreign know-how should be supportive. 2025 tax stability policy helps.

A super-cycle in Asia of US$5tn of energy security-led capex – in Singapore,

Thailand, China, and now India – is picking up to secure dependable energy.