Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE): 2Q26: Record RES margins and supportive regulation, but broader maintenance weighs on volumes; Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE): 2Q26: Record RES margins and supportive regulation, but broader maintenance weighs on volumes; Neutral

Goldman Sachs Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE)

described the regulatory outlook as more favorable than a year ago. In the US, the

finalized 2026-27 RVO mandates continue to support biomass-based diesel demand

and RIN prices, while in Europe, RED III implementation is progressing across key markets

including Germany, the Netherlands and Spain. Neste now estimates global renewable

diesel demand of c.20mtpa growing by around 10% annually, supporting a structurally

stronger medium-term demand outlook.

4) Refining remains a source of upside, though maintenance limits earnings capture.

Oil Products delivered a $25.8/bbl refining margin in 2Q26 versus $23/bbl in 1Q26,

benefiting from easing crude premiums and continued strength in middle-distillate

markets. Management highlighted 90% utilization at Porvoo despite operating close to

catalyst replacement. We continue to see upside risk to 2H26 refining margins given

strong spot diesel cracks and tight market fundamentals. However, the benefit is likely to

be partly offset by lower production during the 8-week Porvoo turnaround, and we

currently model 2H26 refining throughput around 30% below 1H26 levels. For FY27, we

maintain our $14/bbl refining margin assumption, although the current forward curve of

c.$24/bbl suggests upside risk to earnings.

5) Updating our estimates post 2Q26 results. We revise EBITDA estimates by

+12%/+1% for FY26/FY27, respectively. We raise our FY26 RES margin estimate to

$1,017/t from $862/t previously and FY27 to $758/t from $722/t, reflecting stronger

biofuel premiums, improved feedstock economics and supportive regulation. These