Adyen N.V. (ADYEN.AS): Growth Improving into Q2, Competition Fears Overdone; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Adyen N.V. (ADYEN.AS): Growth Improving into Q2, Competition Fears Overdone; Buy

Viewpoint |

04 Aug 2026 00:53:33 ET │ 17 pages

Adyen N.V. (ADYEN.AS)

Growth Improving into Q2, Competition Fears Overdone; Buy

CITI'S TAKE

Adyen shares are down 34% YTD amid concerns around consumer

spending, rising competition and the company's evolving M&A strategy.

However, our customer tracker, take-rate analysis and recent peer results Buy

suggest no meaningful deterioration in spending trends, wallet-share Catalyst Watch: Upside

dynamics or competitive intensity. Recent acquisitions further reinforce

Price (03 Aug 26 16:30) €908.20Adyen's strategy of expanding beyond payments into adjacent layers of the

commerce stack, including billing infrastructure for AI-native businesses Target price €1,800.00

and agentic commerce. We continue to view the recent pullback (c.24x/19x Expected share price return 98.2%

2026/27e PE) as an attractive entry point into a multi-year structural growth

Expected dividend yield 0.0%story. Buy, +ve Catalyst Watch.

Expected total return 98.2%

Growth set to improve into Q2 and H2 — We forecast FX-neutral revenue growth of Market Cap €28,775M

22.3% in Q2, modestly ahead of consensus at 21.5%, driven by resilient eCommerce US$33,172M

spending trends, continued ramp-up of last year's large win cohort, increasing

adoption of products such as Adyen Uplift and an easing of tariff-related

headwinds, which we forecast to be a modest tailwind. Visa and Mastercard cross-

border CNP (proxy for e-commerce) spending trends also remain supportive (Figure

6), while PayPal/Braintree's results and our take rate analysis suggest no material Price Performance

change in the competitive landscape, despite recent investor concerns. (RIC: ADYEN.AS, BB: ADYEN NA)