Volvo Car AB (VOLCARb.ST): Updating estimates post 2Q Results - maintain Sell rating, PT drops to SEK 16

Research evidence excerpt

Volvo Car AB (VOLCARb.ST): Updating estimates post 2Q Results - maintain Sell rating, PT drops to SEK 16

Action |

04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 14 pages

Volvo Car AB (VOLCARb.ST)

Updating estimates post 2Q Results - maintain Sell rating, PT drops to

SEK 16

CITI'S TAKE Sell / High Risk

Price (03 Aug 26 11:01) SKr20.71 We update our Volvo Car model to reflect 2Q26. Given the low exit margin

Target price SKr16.00↓ of 1.1% and given the uncertain backdrop from a cash generation

perspective (high 2H26 raw mats, uncertain demand and pricing etc.) we from SKr17.00

continue to shares as "high risk" and maintain our Sell rating. Our DCF Expected share price return -22.7%

based price target drops to SEK 16. The next catalyst will be the Strategy Expected dividend yield 0.0%

Update September 17th, where we expect management to drill into the Expected total return -22.7%

key levers to mitigate industry headwinds, and thus deliver on margin Market Cap SKr61,706M

upside/FCF generation in 2027. Clearly Volvo Car is entering an

US$6,481M exceptional period of new model launch momentum, as we see across

several peers, and execution on these new models represents an obvious

risk to our Sell thesis. However, macro headwinds and a challenging 2H

from a raw material perspective we think hit Volvo harder than peers and Ross MacDonaldAC

make shares unappealing from a risk-reward standpoint still. +44-20-7986-7547

ross.macdonald@citi.com

2Q26 Summary — 2Q26 results were below our expectations with revenues of Harald C Hendrikse

SEK77.6bn (-17% YoY), 6% below consensus, and adj. EBIT of just SEK826m (1.1% +44-2075-0858-10

margin) missed by 27%, down 120bps QoQ and 210bps YoY on adverse mix (more harald.hendrikse@citi.com

BEV/less ICE), negative pricing/incentives, lower wholesale volumes and lower