Equity Snap: NALCO (NACL IN): Earnings beat; alumina ASP/t moving higher; costs flattish from here

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Snap: NALCO (NACL IN): Earnings beat; alumina ASP/t moving higher; costs flattish from here

3 August 2026

Equity Snap: NALCO (NACL IN) Equities Metals & Mining

Earnings beat; alumina ASP/t moving higher; costs

flattish from here India

◆ NALCO’s 1Q was ahead of consensus estimates. NALCO Pinakin Parekh*

highlighted improving alumina realizations with 2Q expected SeniorHSBC SecuritiesAnalyst, Indiaand CapitalMetalsMarketsand Cement(India) Private

to be USD50/t higher. Aluminum costs increased sharply in Limited pinakin.parekh@hsbc.co.in

1Q but are expected to remain stable in 2Q +91 22 40891549

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

NALCO (NACL IN, INR350.05, Buy, TP INR480.00) not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

(Priced as of 31 Jul 2026)

EBITDA/PAT at INR27.07bn/INR20.02bn respectively (+15.2%/+16.3% q/q).

NALCO reported a beat at the EBITDA (4%) and PAT (5%) levels vs consensus.

Employee cost reduced 11% y/y driven by a) last year’s employee expenses were

impacted by provisions; b) reduction in per employee salary costs on retirement of

senior employees. The aluminum segment accounted for 90% of EBIT.

Alumina prices have increased to USD370/t vs USD320/t in 2Q: NALCO

highlighted higher alumina realizations likely in 2Q with alumina realizations forecast

to be USD50/t higher in 2Q at USD370/t vs realization of USD323/t in 1Q. NALCO’s

alumina cost of production is in the INR21,000-22,000/t range, and it expects the

costs to be stable. At the segment level, the alumina segment EBIT fell 46% q/q with

EBIT margins falling to multi-year lows of 17.9%. Implied alumina EBIT/t declined by

31.8% q/q.

Aluminum costs increased sharply in 1Q and should be stable from here: