ADNOC Drilling (ADNOCDRI UH): Hold: Trimming near-term estimates

Research evidence excerpt

ADNOC Drilling (ADNOCDRI UH): Hold: Trimming near-term estimates

3 August 2026

ADNOC Drilling (ADNOCDRI UH) Equities Energy Equipment & Services

Hold: Trimming near-term estimates United Arab Emirates

◆ Remarkably stable earnings in 1H26; guided flattish FY26 and

MAINTAIN HOLD

single digit percentage growth in FY27

TARGET PRICE (AED) PREVIOUS TARGET (AED)◆ Post-2027 growth likely be stronger; mid-term outlook should

crystalise soon 6.30 6.50

◆ Cut TP to AED6.30 (from AED6.50) on higher WACC, retain Hold SHARE PRICE (AED) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

5.82 +8.2%

Growth on pause in 2026. ADNOC Drilling reported remarkably stable 1H26 earnings (as of 31 Jul 2026)

last week. Yet, its FCF slightly weakened yoy despite lower capex, largely on the back of

MARKET DATA

working capital draw, including reduction in payables to Turnwell JV. The company’s 2026 Market cap (AEDm) 93,120 Free float 16%

targets remain unchanged, but the company’s CFO Mr. Youssef Salem stated at the Market cap (USDm) 25,353 BBG ADNOCDRI

3m ADTV (USDm) 20 RIC ADNOCDRI

conference call that he expects:

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD)◆ 2026 EBITDA and net income to be closer to the lower end of the guidance Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

range (USD2.2bn EBITDA and USD1.45bn net income): this implies flat yoy HSBC EPS 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10

HSBC EPS (prev) 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11

EBITDA and net income. Change (%) 0.0 -1.8 -2.7 -1.9

Consensus EPS 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11

◆ 2026 capex to be closer to the lower of end of the previously guided range of PE (x) 17.5 17.5 16.5 15.3

USD0.6-0.8bn, as some of the investments, such as those planned with respect to Dividend yield (%) 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 12.1 11.3 10.7

the unconventional gas projects, have been pushed into 2027. The USD1.2-1.3bn ROE (%) 36.6 33.7 32.3 31.7