AI capitulation: what’s now priced?: GEMs Equity Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

AI capitulation: what’s now priced?: GEMs Equity Strategy

3 August 2026

AI capitulation: what’s EquityEmergingStrategyMarkets

now priced?

GEMs Equity Strategy

◆ Amid the sell-off in EM’s tech trident, we develop a new model Alastair Pinder, CFA

to unveil the market’s pricing of the long-term earnings cycle Head EM and Global Equity Strategist HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

alastair.pinder@us.hsbc.com

◆ Implied earnings trajectory for Korea memory names has +1 212 525 5972

collapsed, which we think suggests excessive pessimism Pankaj Agarwala*, CFA

EM and Global Equity Strategist

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

◆ Positioning is more supportive amid decline in levered ETFs’ AUM Limited

pankajagarwala@hsbc.co.in

+91 0 80 30013716

AI meltdown: Emerging Markets’ “tech trident” – TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Allison Buck

SK Hynix – has seen sharp unwinding over the past month, with Korea memory EM Equity Strategist

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

names hit the hardest. The key question for investors is what’s priced and when can allison.buck@us.hsbc.com

we become more confident that we are nearing the bottom? +1 212 525 4119

Decoding the implied earning cycle: Traditional valuation multiples are sending * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

mixed signals: SK Hynix, for example, screens optically cheap on a record-low not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

12‑month forward P/E, yet expensive on price-to-book. The more important debate is

therefore not next year’s earnings, but the implied trajectory of the earnings cycle:

how long is the current super-cycle expected to last, how long does the market

expect AI-linked demand to persist, and how much of it is structural rather than