Indian Autos: July 2026: Demand sustains, commodity woes continue

Research evidence excerpt

Indian Autos: July 2026: Demand sustains, commodity woes continue

3 August 2026

Equities

Automobiles Indian Autos

July 2026: Demand sustains, commodity woes continue India

◆ PV volumes surprise positively as demand is resilient; 2Ws Yogesh Aggarwal*

and CVs continue strong demand momentum Head of Research, India HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

yogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in

◆ Rainfall improves, but reservoir levels are still below long-term +91 22 2268 1246

average; tractor demand outlook remains uncertain Vipul Agrawal*, CFA

Analyst, India Automotive

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

◆ Commodity prices remain elevated as the Middle East vipul.agrawal@hsbc.co.in

conflict continues to keep OEM margins under pressure +91 97690 51842

Ayush Jhunjhunwala*

Analyst, Autos and Auto Ancillary

July demand remains robust: Passenger vehicle (PV) wholesale (WS) was up HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

c34% y-o-y and retail sales were up c24%, while two-wheeler (2W) (ex-Bajaj & TVS) ayush.jhunjhunwala@hsbc.co.in

+91 22 40891378

WS was up c15% y-o-y; overall retail sales were up 34% y-o-y. PVs maintain a

strong demand momentum, Maruti continued to replenish inventory, while M&M WS

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

was slightly above retail. Tata Motors’ Sierra demand remains strong, but supply not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

remains a challenge. 2Ws and tractors maintain their demand momentum. Although

rainfall has recovered during the last 2-3 weeks, reservoir levels are still 7% below

the 10-year average (Exhibit 3). Commercial vehicle demand saw some replacement

demand post price hike announcements from OEMs, but overall demand remains