MTN Group (MTN SJ): Buy: Group growth outlook still positive despite Nigeria miss

Research evidence excerpt

MTN Group (MTN SJ): Buy: Group growth outlook still positive despite Nigeria miss

Equities ● Wireless Telecommunications

3 August 2026

MTN: Growth outlook remains

strong despite Nigeria miss

◆ We see strong c17% LC growth rate in medium term for MTN group

to sustain despite the hiccup in Nigeria; miss already in the price

◆ We adjust our forecasts for softer 2026 in Nigeria and lower 2027

Ghana revenue growth rate to factor in much lower inflation rate

◆ Fuel price to impact margins in Nigeria in 3Q26 but we expect

margin improvements to resume from 4Q26

Key forecast changes

Changes to our estimates

We update Nigeria/Ghana reported 2Q26 numbers, refresh FX based on spot rates and revise

assumptions across other segments.

Key changes are in Nigeria where we now turn conservative for 2H26 given high base in 2H25

as this was the argument given by Nigeria management. Management downplayed the role of

xtratime in slower voice/data revenue growth and said customers found other channels for their

top ups, a theory we still do not agree to and suspect much lower xtratime volume impact user

behaviour in the segment as users rely heavily on borrowed airtime for voice and data usage.

Our suspicion is that such customers may have shifted to competitors to borrow airtime and MTN

may have lost such opportunity/customers during the period. As MTN ramps up xtratime lending

again albeit with more vendors than just one earlier (Optasia), it is likely to see recovery in growth

trends in voice and data revenues if such theory holds. However, it seems MTN has changed its

lending policies and is now more conservative in approach, which suggests recovery in the

segment could be slower. We hence keep our 2H26 revenue growth forecasts conservative and