Usiminas (USIM5.SA): Usiminas (USIM5): Model Update: MUSA CAPEX and HRC Anti-Dumping in the Spotlight

Research evidence excerpt

Usiminas (USIM5.SA): Usiminas (USIM5): Model Update: MUSA CAPEX and HRC Anti-Dumping in the Spotlight

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03 Aug 2026 17:00:00 ET │ 12 pages

Usiminas (USIM5.SA)

Usiminas (USIM5): Model Update: MUSA CAPEX and HRC Anti-

Dumping in the Spotlight

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (03 Aug 26 18:00) R$7.56 We updated our Usiminas model following the 2Q26 results, incorporating

Target price R$10.00 reported figures and fine-tuning our assumptions. Following the recent

sell-off, we now estimate the company is trading at 8% FCFE Yield 2027E. Expected share price return 32.3%

Looking ahead, we believe the investment debate is shifting away from Expected dividend yield 3.2%

quarterly earnings and toward two key catalysts: 1) the outcome of the Expected total return 35.4%

MUSA strategic review and 2) the potential impact of the HRC anti- Market Cap R$8,867M

dumping measures on pricing power, import penetration and domestic US$1,747M

market share. While management continues to indicate that the MUSA

process should reach a final decision by year-end, we believe the

implementation and effectiveness of the new trade measures will be

equally important in determining the medium-term earnings outlook. We Gabriel BarraAC

maintain our Buy rating and R$10/sh TP. +55-11-4009-2223

gabriel.barra@citi.com

Model Updates — We maintain our 2026 consolidated EBITDA estimate at Pedro Ferreira De Mello

R$2.9bn, while increasing our 2027 EBITDA forecast to R$3.43bn (from R$3.3bn), +55-21-4009-0425

reflecting a gradual improvement in operating performance. Within our estimates, pedro.mello@citi.com

we modestly increased expected synergies and slightly improved our steel

profitability assumptions, mainly reflecting the full contribution from the PCI project

throughout 2027.