Leading Mall Operators - Hidden Gems in the Consumption Space

Research evidence excerpt

Leading Mall Operators - Hidden Gems in the Consumption Space

Asia Pacific InsightM

Executive Summary

Investment conclusion - China mall operators are structural share

gainers in a soft consumption cycle

The market continues to treat China mall operators as direct proxies for weak domestic

consumption. We believe this view is overly simplistic. China's retail environment remains

subdued (national retail sales increased only 1.3% y-y in 1H26), while offline consumption

continues to face pressure from weak employment confidence, the prolonged housing

downturn, and online substitution. However, operating data points to a widening gap

between the aggregate market and professionally managed malls. The top 30 malls

delivered a 6.6% tenant-sales CAGR in 2023–25 (vs. 3.4% for national offline retail), while

leading operators maintained high occupancy rates and healthy tenant occupancy costs.

The key investment debate is therefore not whether consumption is strong, but which

operators can capture a larger share of a slow-growing consumption pool.

We expect leading operators to remain structural share gainers through two growth

engines: resilient same-store performance and continued portfolio expansion. Our

forecasts imply mid-single-digit to low-teens China mall rental CAGRs over 2025-30,

materially above the regulator's targeted 3.7% national retail sales growth benchmark.

This supports a selective rather than broad-based sector stance. CR Land and Swire are

our preferred long-duration compounders; Seazen offers the most compelling 12-month

valuation asymmetry; Longfor and Wharf appear fairly valued. CR Mixc remains the

clearest asset-light beneficiary of industry consolidation.

Key catalysts include easier retail sales comparisons in 2H26, potential targeted