1H26 Preview: Weak Earnings amid Further Margin Squeeze

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Preview: Weak Earnings amid Further Margin Squeeze

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

C&D International Investment Group Ltd 1908.HK

Development gross margin Very likely upside surprise Modest revision lower

• 1H core profits likely to fall ~10% y-y owing to reduced DP booking, but gross margin likely to beat market

expectation at ~15% (vs. 12.9% in 1H25 and 13.9% in 2025).

• Balance sheet may improve further with lower leverage (partially because of limited landbanking in 1H),

reduced completed inventory, and lower share of legacy projects.

China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd 0817.HK

Development gross margin In-line Modest revision lower

• 1H core profits may drop >20% y-y owing to reduced disposal gains, but development margin may remain

stable given decreasing drag from legacy projects.

• Pre-sales growth could notably accelerate in 3Q given abundant saleable resources (11-12 brand new

projects) and low base.

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone 001979.SZ

Development gross margin Likely downside surprise Meaningful revision lower

• CMSK already issued a profit warning, with 1H core profits potentially dropping >90% y-y because of notable

compression in development margin despite stable revenue.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. 0688.HK

Development gross margin Likely upside surprise Modest revision lower

• 1H core profits to drop 10-15% y-y amid mild revenue decline and ~1ppt lower gross margin

• Impariment on offices (non-core) may lead to deeper decline in reported earnings.

• DP margin outlook may remain weak given limited asset impairment provisions.

China Resources Land Ltd. 1109.HK

Development gross margin Very likely downside surprise Modest revision lower