Swissquote Group (sqn.s): Crypto softness offset by volume indicators that point to net guidance upgrades; up to Buy from Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Swissquote Group (sqn.s): Crypto softness offset by volume indicators that point to net guidance upgrades; up to Buy from Neutral

Goldman Sachs Swissquote Group (SQN.S)

Exhibit 4: We think the recent share price correction is Exhibit 5: However, crypto-related income represents a

partly explained by SQN’s crypto revenues tending to relatively minor portion of the firm’s net revenues, with

correlate with market volumes volume dynamics now relatively well-understood by the

Global exchange-traded crypto volume, $bn (LHS) | SQN crypto market, in our view

assets-related income, CHF mn (RHS) SQN FY25 net revenues by type, %

16,000 70

14,000 60

12,000 Net eForex income + Net Net fee & commission income

50 trading income (excl crypto)

29% 29%

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

Net crypto assets income

2,000 10 12%

Net interest income

30%

0 0

1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H23 1H24 2H24 1H25 2H25 1H26

Global exch traded volume, $bn (LHS) SQN crypto revenue, CHF mn (RHS)

Source: Company data, The Block Source: Company data

With crypto volume dynamics relatively well understood by the market, we think

SQN can deliver offsetting upside in securities trading & eForex, and net interest

income

That being said, we believe these dynamics are now broadly well-understood by the

market. Further, while we view Swissquote’s FY26 crypto-related income guidance as

challenging, we believe this downside is more than offset by upside to the rest of the

firm’s expectations, across both securities trading & eForex, and net interest income. On

the former, while securities trading & eForex revenues have historically been difficult to

forecast given the lack of regular volume updates, we highlight a number of key

indicators that should be supportive to performance here, and we use these as the basis