Mastercard Inc: Mastercard 2Q26: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Mastercard Inc: Mastercard 2Q26: Model Update

umer payments is largely noise and MA stands to

monetize stablecoin-related on/off ramps flows. See our note - Payments: Stablecoins — What we learned from our

dozens of industry conversations; Slide deck (May 2026).

Overall, we believe the results were a good reminder of why investors should own Mastercard - steady and well-

executed consumer business, growing revenue contribution from Mastercard’s services investments and future

strategic bets. Spending is largely stable (adj. for noise from the COF-debit portfolio). Agentic is a strategic opportunity, and

stablecoins’ ecosystem is a friend (not foe). Meanwhile, relative valuation is in the bottom quintile range vs. the last 10 years. We

like Mastercard at 25x 2027 Earnings for an LDD-low teens revenue and mid-teens% EPS grower.

• At the beginning of the year, we had a strong preference for Visa over Mastercard given our expectations around

narrowing of the growth delta, and Visa’s accelerated product velocity and momentum in stablecoin-linked cards. Given

the narrowing of the multiple premium, we no longer have a preference. While MA still has to navigate ME headwind in

its guide (where it likely has a slightly higher exposure vs. Visa), looking into 2027, MA’s growth outlook likely is similar to that

of Visa. We are closely watching the impact from recent reorganization, growth in cybersecurity, and stablecoin strategy post

BVNK.

ESTIMATE CHANGES

We rate Mastercard OP. We update our estimates to reflect the latest results and, guide and company commentary and maintain

our TP of $710. We value Mastercard using a Price-Earnings (PE) Multiple approach. Our $710 price target is based on a FY27E