Visa, Mastercard: Is the narrative finally changing? Are the numbers okay with several moving pieces?: Payments, Processors & IT Services

Research evidence excerpt

Visa, Mastercard: Is the narrative finally changing? Are the numbers okay with several moving pieces?: Payments, Processors & IT Services

17 July 2026

Estimate Change

Payments, Processors & IT Services

Visa, Mastercard: Is the narrative finally changing? Are the

numbers okay with several moving pieces?

Visa and Mastercard report earnings on July 28 and July 30, respectively. In this note, we Harshita Rawat, CFA

+1 917 344 8485 discuss our perspectives and key debates going into the earnings season.

harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com

Overall, U.S. purchase volumes generally look strong going into the print. Bank

Viola Chen earnings suggest 100-150bps acceleration in US volumes vs. 1q (+50-100bps vs.

+1 917 344 8614 consensus) likely on strength in ticket sizes. Gas prices are up ~40% YTD and V/MA viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com

purchase volumes are exposed to ‘nominal’ spend of consumers (i.e. they, on balance, have

Simran Ratani a tailwind from higher gas prices).

+1 917 344 8329

simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com Cross-border, however, will likely be mixed because of the Middle East (-), FX Vol

(-), Ticket Prices (+) and FIFA (+). The war in Iran poses some headwind to cross-border

revenues due to disruption of travel in/out of the Middle East. We estimate calendar 2q

cross-border volume headwind to be around a few ppt (MEA travel was down sharply by

45% in April but then recovered to -30% yoy growth in May, -13% in June and -2% in July).

FX volatility (an input to cross-border revenues) is also down ~18% since the companies

reported. FX vol headwind will be 25% yoy in calendar 2q, 24% in 3q and 16% in 4q - likely

implying a few ppt headwind to cross-border revenue. On the flip side, we est. ~100bps

FIFA World Cup related tailwind to cross-border volumes in calendar 2q and 3q.