Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Alcohol... The cyclical side of the debate is more complex than ever

Research evidence excerpt

Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Alcohol... The cyclical side of the debate is more complex than ever

3 August 2026

American & European Alcoholic Beverages

Best of Times, Worst of Times: US Alcohol... The cyclical side of

the debate is more complex than ever

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The opening line of Charles Dickens’ ‘A Nadine Sarwat, CFA

+44 20 7676 6849 Tale of Two Cities’ captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracy indulging in

nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty and oppression. While 2026 is

thankfully not 18th century France, shifting class dynamics remain as topical as ever. In this

Trevor Stirling note, we examine the impact of the K-shaped economy on US alcohol and how the ‘cyclical

+44 20 7676 7521

trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com side’ of the cyclical vs. structural debate is more complex than ever.

Matthew Cheung A K-shaped economy is a headwind to alcohol volumes. Alcohol occupies a unique

+44 20 7676 6809 position in consumer spending. It is part staple: alcohol drinkers are broadly proportionally

matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com distributed by income. But it is also part discretionary: what and how we drink is impacted

by the economy. Furthermore, alcohol volume consumed is concentrated by other

Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India) demographics: skewing younger and male. Net, the K-shaped economy is a negative: if the +44 20 7676 7291

asavari.paluskar@bernsteinsg.com bottom 20% by income drink less alcohol because their wallets are squeezed (esp.

young Americans) the top 20% will not drink more alcohol to offset that.

Specialist Sales

2025 US per capita alcohol consumption was ~11% below 2019, with cost an

Alix Turner important factor.