Brown-Forman: Rationality is prevailing (so far)... aging US whiskey inventories stable as production falls strong DD%

Research evidence excerpt

Brown-Forman: Rationality is prevailing (so far)... aging US whiskey inventories stable as production falls strong DD%

16 July 2026

Nadine Sarwat, CFA

+44 20 7676 6849

Americas Alcoholic Beverages nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com

Brown-Forman Corp Trevor Stirling

+44 20 7676 7521

Rating trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Matthew Cheung

Price Target +44 20 7676 6809

matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com

BF/B 29.00 USD

Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)

+44 20 7676 7291

asavari.paluskar@bernsteinsg.com

Brown-Forman: Rationality is prevailing (so far)... aging US

whiskey inventories stable as production falls strong DD%

Elevated aging US whiskey inventories coupled with sluggish demand has, over the last two

Close Date 14 Jul 2026

years, led to fears that a supply glut could drive broad-based discounting in the industry

BF/B Close Price (USD) 25.10

(and margin contraction at Brown-Forman). While inventories remain elevated, rationality

Price Target (USD) 29.00

is prevailing (so far): production is meaningfully falling, inventory is plateauing and pricing is

Upside/(Downside) 16%

holding. But given limited visibility into demand, we aren’t out of the woods yet.

52-Week Range 31.92/22.61

Investment Implications SPX 7,572.40

FYE Apr

US whiskey inventories have remained stable at the start of 2026. Late last year, we

Div Yield 3.7%

highlighted that US whiskey inventories were showing signs of stabilization. Since then, that

Market Cap (USD) (M) 11,620

encouraging trend has continued. According to the latest TTB data (available to the end of

EV (USD) (M) 13,923

Mar-26), US whiskey inventories have been broadly flat since Jun-25.

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

This is underpinned by a rational industry response to current market dynamics, with Absolute (%) (3.7) (6.8) (8.5) (8.7)