Poor ad trends still matter

Research evidence excerpt

Poor ad trends still matter

Equity Research

European Media

3 August 2026

ITV Plc

1H26A missed and we downgrade EPS by 7-10% owing to

poor ad trends. Who cares? M&E has gone to Sky so no

impact. Yes, expect the £200m earn-out is linked to a 2027E ITV.L/ITV LN EQUAL WEIGHT Unchanged

ad target that is less and less likely. £200m equates to 7% of European Media NEUTRAL

market cap. Unclear how much investors are discounting. Unchanged

Price Target GBp 75

lowered -6% from GBp 80

Q2 revenues was below expectations while H1 EBITA was in line with consensus but below

Price (31-Jul-26) GBp 74us. Q3 guidance shows poor ad trends, and we downgrade total advertising to 0.0% from

Potential Upside/Downside +1.0%2.0% growth in 2026E resulting in 7-10% headline EPS downgrade. Our readers could say Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

who cares. The broadcast business has been sold to Sky. Except there is a £200m earn-out

linked to 2027E advertising and 2026E weakness makes it less likely to be cashed in.

Market Cap (GBP mn) 2816

£200m is 7% of market cap. It is hard to assess how much was discounted by the market.

Shares Outstanding (mn) 3793.19The deal could also be vetoed by the regulator in which case ad weakness does matter. On

Free Float (%) 97.38our forecasts, implied multiples for ITV Studios (without £0.2bn earn-out to be

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 6.7conservative) are 7.3x EV/EBITDA, 9.4x P/E and 7.6% eFCF in 2026E. Banijay (not covered)

Dividend Yield (%) 6.73trades on 7.6x 2026E P/E and 8.8x 2026E EV/EBITDA on BBG consensus estimates, at a

Return on Equity TTM (%) 12.20discount to ITV Studios' implied multiples. Deal approval is also by no mean guaranteed.