Better Than Expected 2Q Beat & Raise Likely To Drive Short-Squeeze

Research evidence excerpt

Better Than Expected 2Q Beat & Raise Likely To Drive Short-Squeeze

Update

August 3, 2026 11:20 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCNH Industrial NV | North America Angel Castillo

Equity Analyst

Better Than Expected 2Q Beat Angel.Castillo@morganstanley.comEsther O Osinaiya +1 212 761-1931

Research Associate

Esther.Osinaiya@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3176

& Raise Likely To Drive Short- Stefan Diaz, CFA

Stefan.Diaz@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1834

Squeeze Oliver Jiang

Oliver.Jiang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6458

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

CNH Industrial NV (CNH.N, CNH US)

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher

Machinery & Construction | United States of America

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View Attractive

Price target $15.00

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) $10.25

Key Takeaways Mkt52-Weekcap, currRange(mm) $13.31-9.00$12,782

2Q26 Adj. EPS of $0.13 ahead of MSe of $0.12 and Cons of $0.10

Raised FY26 Adj. EPS to $0.41-0.46 (previously $0.35-$0.45) vs. Cons of $0.42

Stock Reaction: Expect a short-squeeze given a solid beat and raise and

positioning ahead of the print that was heavily skewed short.

See below for notable takeaways from CNH's earnings release and inside for a

more detailed variance table of results vs. expectations ( Exhibit 1 ) and guidance

summary table ( Exhibit 2 ).

• (+) 2Q26 EPS of $0.13 came in ahead of MSe of $0.12 and in line with Cons

of $0.10

• (+) Raised its FY26 Adj. EPS Guide to $0.41-0.46 (previously $0.35-$0.45)

vs. Cons of $0.42 and MSe of $0.54 (MSe included tariff refunds + benefits

assumptions). Notably, based on the slides, the company's tariff impact does