2Q26 Preview: It‘s All About Orders

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: It‘s All About Orders

IdeaMCaterpillar (CAT; EW), Willscot (WSC; EW), and Oshkosh (OSK; EW).

• Agriculture - Channel checks continue to suggest the market is bouncing

along the bottom with any evidence of a real recovery remaining elusive.

That said, we generally expect FY EPS guides to likely be tweaked higher on

the back of Section 232 relief and IEEPA refunds flowing through.

Fundamentally, we think Latin America, namely Brazil, remains the most

likely downside risk to regional Ag outlooks – in particular we think this is a

risk for CNH/AGCO guides given DE already lowered their Latin America

outlook last quarter. Net net, a relatively mixed quarter with some positives

and some negatives that likely provide something for both bulls and bears.

As a result, we expect Ag OEM stocks (DE, CNH, AGCO) to continue to trade

more with macro and tariff policy dynamics than fundamentals near-term,

and remain relatively range-bound. Our order of preference is unchanged

and more focused on the longer term with Deere (DE; OW), followed by

CNH Industrial (CNH; OW), and AGCO (AGCO; UW).

• Trucks - The debate is now less about order strength, which has remained

seasonally solid with builds modestly improving sequentially in 2Q, and more

about whether builds can keep pace with industry forecasts and

management expectations through the remainder of the year. Separately,

we're watching early data points on 2027 for signs of underlying demand

strength that could support a longer duration upcycle. With respect to EPA

'27 NOx rules, we think management teams will be inclined to reserve

commentary until the proposed rule is finalized, as unfinished points could

still affect OEMs differently - watch for public comments posted directly on

the regulations.gov website instead.