2Q26 Preview: Discretionary Still Challenged

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Discretionary Still Challenged

uggest continued pressure on discretionary. Our 2Q26 CIO e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Survey points to +1.8% y/y IT Services growth in 2026, a slight downward revision Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

from the +2.0% y/y growth recorded in our 1Q26 survey and slightly below 2025 Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

levels of +2.1%. While overall IT budget expectations modestly accelerated to +3.8% Q1 2.41 - 2.86a 3.31 3.31

Q2 2.77 3.13 3.13 3.33 3.33

(vs. +3.7% in 2025), a potential indication that AI pilots are beginning to Q3 3.08 3.47 3.45 3.65 3.63

demonstrate incremental returns, the QoQ deceleration in Services budget growth Q4 3.26 3.58 3.55 3.69 3.66

expectations suggests that AI is still crowding out discretionary spend, especially as e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

AI/ML remain the #1 CIO priority and Services was the only category to tick down

sequentially this quarter. Our survey also highlighted that relative to 4Q25, EPAM

had the second largest increase in willingness to discount at +40% (from -15% to

+25%), and saw negative spending intentions among respondents, with 1 respondent

looking to increase spend, offset by 3 respondents looking to decrease spend (see

exhibits below). Additionally, ACN’s weak May quarter print with worse-than-feared

bookings decline indicated that managed services deals were being pushed out and

the demand backdrop remains further challenged by the Middle East conflict,

including through indirect impacts. TCS similarly cited inflation and geopolitical

uncertainty pressuring discretionary spend, while INFY continues to see uncertain

client decision-making, selective discretionary spending, and softer pricing as