Off the 2Q26 Call

Research evidence excerpt

Off the 2Q26 Call

Update

August 3, 2026 02:50 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MLuberef | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

Off the 2Q26 Call Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Bottom line: mixed. Management emphasised that sales volumes should remain

Giulia Faro

largely intact via re-routing, local sales and customer freight-sharing. Earnings Research Associate

sensitivity is a factor of longer transit times, freight costs and working capital. By- Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

product margins reverted to negative levels for Q2 (-$12/t vs $70/t in Q1), which Luberef (2223.SE, LUBEREF AB)

weighed on results. At this stage, visibility remains limited due to geopolitics, EEMEA - Oil & Gas | Saudi Arabia

volatile feedstock prices and the unquantified economics of Group III+ growth. Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View No Rating

# Managing logistics disruption. Management indicated Bab el-Mandeb remains Price target SAR 146.00

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026) SAR 127.40

fluid, but Cape of Good Hope routing, local trucking and sales, new export 52-Week Range SAR 138.60- 81.45

destinations and customer FOB collections are already being used. It does not Mkt cap, curr (mn) SAR 21,436

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* SAR (1,227)

expect a material H2 volume impact, although alternative routing could add 45–60 EV, curr (mn)* SAR 20,824

days and freight costs above $100/t depending on destination, with recovery * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

negotiated customer by customer.

# By-product margins. Q2 by-product crack margins fell to -$12/t from $70/t in Q1

as crude, fuel-oil and feedstock prices normalised; by-products reprice faster than