Norwegian Cruise 2Q26: Tide is still going out

Research evidence excerpt

Norwegian Cruise 2Q26: Tide is still going out

31 July 2026

Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850

Global Hotels & Leisure richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd Niall Mitchelson

+44 20 7676 7144

Rating niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Lasith Siriwardana

Price Target +44 20 7550 2191

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

NCLH 18.00 USD

Norwegian have been plagued by execution issues, leading to a steady drip of yield

Close Date 30 Jul 2026

downgrades. Last quarter saw new management choose to rip the band-aid off on 2026

NCLH Close Price (USD) 18.72

yield guidance, which was downgraded by ~4%. However, this was not enough, 2Q has seen

Price Target (USD) 18.00

another reset. 26 EPS was downgraded by ~7%, and messaging of 2027 being a ‘transition

Upside/(Downside) (4)%

year’ and yield declines in1H27 was formalized, likely meaning material downside to 2027

52-Week Range 27.18/14.53

EPS. Management have made changes - shifting to a ‘base loading’ approach, bringing in new

SPX 7,437.63

leadership in marketing. However, long cruise booking windows mean it will take ~12m to see

FYE Dec

benefits. We expect now the bad news is largely circulated, and don't expect further pressure

Div Yield NA

on near term yield guidance, but equally do not see this as an entry point - earnings estimate

Market Cap (USD) (M) 8,595

pressure and valuation lead to a challenging outlook.

EV (USD) (M) 23,412

Does calling the bottom on yield downgrades matter? Improvements in yield growth Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

post 1H27 make sense on a purely mechanical basis - we lap the HSD declines in 2H26, Absolute (%) (16.1) (11.3) (14.8) (26.8)

new marketing strategies begin to ramp, and the Caribbean product improves with new SPX (%) 8.6 (0.8) 7.2 16.9

content on GSC.