Back on the Rack: Cross-Asset Perspective on Section 301 Tariffs

Research evidence excerpt

Back on the Rack: Cross-Asset Perspective on Section 301 Tariffs

Idea

August 3, 2026 08:08 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMConsumer Credit Research | North America Jenna L Giannelli

Credit Analyst

Back on the Rack: Cross-Asset Jenna.Giannelli@morganstanley.comArunima Sinha +1 212 761-4340

Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

Perspective on Section 301 Ariana Salvatore

Equity Strategist

Ariana.Salvatore@morganstanley.com

Tariffs Martin W Tobias, CFA

Strategist

Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076

Our cross-asset work across Morgan Stanley Fixed Income, Simeon Gutman, CFA

Economics, Policy and Equity points to an underappreciated EquitySimeon.Gutman@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-3920

relief for the Retail / Consumer complex. Section 301 preserves Alex Straton

most of 1H26’s tariff relief, limits renewed inflation risk and EquityAlex.Straton@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-5583

supports 2H26–2027 margin, earnings, and cash flow upside.

Key Takeaways

Peak tariff shock is behind the consumer complex. Our custom consumer goods

basket sits at 12% under Section 301 versus 19% under average IEEPA; softlines at

24% versus 35%.

The 2027 margin story is timing-driven. Costs fade in 2Q26, turn to the strongest

YoY tailwind in 3Q26, and stay supportive through 1H27 before comps normalize

in 2H27.

Biggest winners paid the most and likely keep the price (or most of it). Softlines

carrying high embedded 2H tariff assumptions, plus furniture and sporting goods

with pricing power.

The credit benefit is recurring; one-time IEEPA refunds are not. Lower landed

costs lift gross margin, EBITDA, and FCF, but keep refunds out of run-rate.

Policy looks durable at the 10%–12.5% baseline but not static beneath it.