MTN Group Limited | Europe H1: Revenue Below Guidance, Margins Above Guidance, Both Ahead of Conservative MS Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

MTN Group Limited | Europe H1: Revenue Below Guidance, Margins Above Guidance, Both Ahead of Conservative MS Estimates

UpdateMExhibit 2: 1H26 performance vs guidance

Medium-term Variance vs

Metric 1H2026 reported

guidance guidance

Below guidance

Service revenue growth 32.30% Mid-to-upper 30s

range

Above guidance

EBITDA margin 61.80% Mid-to-upper 50s

Source: e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Legal update

Clydestone Ghana has initiated legal proceedings against Scancom PLC, MTN Group

and MobileMoney Fintech, alleging the unauthorised use of intellectual property

and proprietary operating processes linked to work undertaken in 2007. While the

claim creates an additional overhang around the fintech business, it remains too

early to assess the potential financial implications, and we expect the market's

primary focus to remain on revenue growth and guidance quality.

Overall, this was a stronger result than our estimates suggested. The challenge

is that the market may have been positioned for something even better. Our

forecasts were already conservative relative to what we believe were more

optimistic expectations elsewhere. We expect investor questions to focus more on

the moderation in service revenue growth to 29.2% in 2Q26 than on the continued

strength in EBITDA growth. The key debate is whether service revenue growth can

accelerate in 2H26, particularly as inflation is expected to increase towards the

lower end of the Bank of Ghana's target range, creating a less supportive operating

backdrop than that experienced in 1H26. With 1H26 service revenue growth tracking

below management's mid-to-upper 30s growth guidance, the key debate is

increasingly one of delivery against this guidance rather than guidance maintenance

itself.