CMBS Smorgasbord Adrenaline

Research evidence excerpt

CMBS Smorgasbord Adrenaline

FICC Research

Securitised Credit

31 July 2026

CMBS Smorgasbord

Adrenaline

Earnings season is well underway. We point to research from

our credit and equity colleagues that sheds light on data

center demand, as well as trends across traditional real Lea Overby +1 617 342 4293

estate, with a clear read-through to CRE fundamentals. lea.overby@barclays.com

Earnings look solid, with some fairly well-known pockets of BCI, US

weakness. Pulkit+1 212 Khandelwal526 7206

pulkit.khandelwal@barclays.com

The AI narrative has provided a shot of adrenaline to the US economy this year, and 2Q earnings BCI, US

show no indication of a shift. The hyperscalers remain in growth mode, as Meta and Amazon

increased their capex guidance, while Microsoft noted that it expects to double capacity in two

years.

This growth has boosted the performance of data center platform provider Digital Realty Trust ,

with positive implication for other CMBS and ABS data center issuers. DLR also saw

outperformance across its smallest power bands, indicating that the growth in data center

usage extends well beyond the hyperscalers. In fact, more corporate issuers are now investing in

AI and realizing material benefits.

AI trends and the related infrastructure build-out are major talking points among CMBS

investors. Although data center CMBS supply is relatively small, AI-related corporate issuance

has surged, and indigestion fears caused spreads to move wider over the past few weeks. In

response, Barclays US Credit team has created ex-AI custom indices, noting that long-end

industrials would be 7bp tighter if hyperscalers were excluded.

Similarly, CMBS fundamental performance is likely to fall more in line with more traditional

property REITs.