Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD): Reinstate at Buy Given Favorable Commodity Price Targets and Upside from Counter-Cyclical Aluminum Business

Research evidence excerpt

Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD): Reinstate at Buy Given Favorable Commodity Price Targets and Upside from Counter-Cyclical Aluminum Business

Goldman Sachs Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)

~$1.6bn at full utilization (a milestone the company expects to reach by early 2027),

roughly ~2.4x original company guidance ($675mn mid-point) and 2.1x consensus

estimates of $760mn.

2) Sinton flat-roll mill strategic geographic location is expected to service underserved

Western markets, which we expect should lead to market share capture and high

utilization rates.

3) Product mix, focused on coated and value added products, should act as a

tailwind given tighter supply dynamic relative to HRC; furthermore, we view its

end-market exposure as the most durable among competitors.

4) Multi-year high scrap spreads expected to drive margins higher in the

near-to-intermediate term, while Section 232 steel tariffs establish a higher floor for

these spreads – which we believe STLD will achieve broader margin expansion than its

competitors due to the company’s captive scrap system and structural utilization

premium.

5) Free cash flow inflecting as multi-year capex spend cycle on Sinton and Aluminum

business concludes, which should result in potential accelerated returns to shareholders.

Macro Environment Provides Supportive Backdrop for STLD

Steel tariffs supportive of higher volumes. Section 232 steel tariffs implemented in

June 2025 drove up landed costs over the past year, reducing the competitiveness of

foreign steel. As a result, we estimate YTD imports are down (2.65mn) tons or (~25%)

yoy. Conversely, domestic shipments are up +1.76mn tons or +4% yoy as domestic mills

ramp to take share from imports with flat roll products seeing the largest impact. We