Irani (RANI3.SA): Model Update: Maintain Buy despite lowering 2026 EBITDA

Research evidence excerpt

Irani (RANI3.SA): Model Update: Maintain Buy despite lowering 2026 EBITDA

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03 Aug 2026 01:31:25 ET │ 14 pages

Irani (RANI3.SA)

Model Update: Maintain Buy despite lowering 2026 EBITDA

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We updated our model following Irani’s 2Q26 results, which came broadly

in line with our estimates. Our main revision reflects a more cautious Price (31 Jul 26 18:00) R$8.11

outlook for prices over the coming quarters, as industry supply continues Target price R$11.00

to increase with new capacity ramping up. Although demand across key Expected share price return 35.6%

client segments remains healthy, we believe the pricing environment is Expected dividend yield 5.8%

likely to remain more competitive through 2H26, limiting the pace of price Expected total return 41.4%

increases. On the other hand, we continue to expect Irani to grow above

Market Cap R$1,869M the market and gain market share throughout 2H26. In our view, the

US$368M company should increasingly execute on the strategic agenda presented

at its Investor Day, prioritizing volume growth and market share gains over

price. We believe this strategy should support above market growth over

the medium term and reinforce the company’s competitive positioning. Gabriel BarraAC

+55-11-4009-2223

Model Update — The key change to our forecasts is a reduction in our prices gabriel.barra@citi.com

assumptions for 2H26. As a result, we are reducing our 2026 EBITDA estimate by 3% Pedro Ferreira De Mello

versus our previous forecast to R$551mn. We fine-tuned our capex schedule by

+55-21-4009-0425

adjusting the timing of investments, with no material changes to our long-term

pedro.mello@citi.comassumptions. We also incorporated the debt issuance announced on July 31, which

added R$591MN of cash (net) to the balance sheet.