2Q26 Preview: Building in a Little More Cash App Conservatism Amid Balanced Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Building in a Little More Cash App Conservatism Amid Balanced Expectations

IdeaMfree cash flow remains strong, share repurchases provide support, and valuation is

not especially demanding on an absolute earnings basis. Bulls also point to

improving Seller trends, strong international performance, constructive third-party

data, and further monetization opportunities through Borrow, Cash App Card, and

BNPL.

We remain constructive on Square’s Seller trajectory and comfortable with the

pace of acceleration, supported by stronger execution among larger and more

complex merchants, and continued expansion of the company’s sales

distribution capabilities. We're particularly encouraged by the buildout of the

direct-sales organization and broader channel partnerships, which should improve

Square’s ability to reach upmarket sellers and compete more effectively in verticals

where its historical self-serve model has been less successful. Key items to watch

include the pace of GPV growth, evidence that sales investments are translating into

sustained merchant wins, retention and cohort performance, international

momentum, and the spread between GPV and gross-profit growth. We would be

comfortable with modest near-term gross-profit pressure if it reflects deliberate

pricing flexibility, higher sales and marketing investment, or greater use of channel

partners to accelerate GMV and improve market share. In an increasingly

competitive environment against Toast, Clover, and other vertical-specific platforms,

we believe maintaining the flexibility to gain market share and retain faster-growing

merchants is strategically important.

At the same time, we think Square may have better pricing/take rate durability

than bearish investors are likely concerned about.