Air Products and Chemicals Inc. | North America Price Target & Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Air Products and Chemicals Inc. | North America Price Target & Model Update

Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Self-help: PositiveBase, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 31

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $410.00 BASE CASE $320.00 BEAR CASE $225.00

~18x F2029 EBITDA discounted back ~16x F2029 EBITDA discounted back ~13x F2029 EBITDA discounted back at 10%

Large projects advance on-time, under Back to basics strategy pays off over time. Twin effects of extended geopolitical

budget, and are contracted in a high quality Company is able to take costs out and conflict and recession - onsite holds up, but

way (i.e., LT take-or-pay with auto cost pass- manage challenging macro in-line with the merchant is weak taking recent price and

thru). CapEx under budget and APD outlook outlined in both F2025 and F2026. margin gains with it. Helium remains

achieves some green price premiums versus NEOM/Yara partnership status quo, but oversupplied. Large projects hit additional

grey. Cost restructuring comes in early and uncertainty remains about profits/cash flow. cost overruns/delays and do not attract

above expectations. Strong incrementals on Merchant price-cost manageable and contracted customers or blue/green

price-cost and helium post Iran conflict. reduced helium headwinds post Iran conflict. premiums. NEOM could be a $0.50-$1.50

Multiple expands on this earnings outcome EPS headwind. Base business growth slows