LITE/COHR FQ4 Preview: Margins and Ramps in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

LITE/COHR FQ4 Preview: Margins and Ramps in Focus

Update

August 3, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMTelecom & Networking Equipment | North America Meta A Marshall

Equity Analyst

LITE/COHR FQ4 Preview: Meta.Marshall@morganstanley.comAntonio Jaramillo +1 212 761-0430

Research Associate

Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4438

Margins and Ramps in Focus

Telecom & Networking Equipment

North America

Focus remains primarily on margins/ramp of new products into Industry View In-Line

optical prints as conditions remain largely sold out. Lack of

clarity on CPO/NPO and concern on laser capacity coming online

biases us more conservatively into prints, but bias more positive

towards COHR given potential margin catalyst.

Key Takeaways

Investors have been more cautious on LITE / COHR of late given concerns around

CPO timing / ramp plans of Chinese players around lasers.

While we don't see delays to CPO timing, as mentioned in our deep dive, our

concern is more around degree of adoption with NPO seeming to gain more

traction.

Don't believe we are likely to get incremental news around CPO / NPO timing on

earnings, making earnings less of a catalyst (OCP likely greater positive catalyst).

Favor COHR vs. LITE on print given more unknowns around gross margin

trajectory (where company was very positive intraquarter).

Positive catalyst for LITE would be bringing forward $1.25bn revenue run rate

target two quarters to September quarter, something we think unlikely on print.

Preview slightly cautious into earnings, although the setup for LITE and COHR

has become more balanced. Since publishing our Scale-Up Refreshed primer and

Feedback from the Road note, hyperscaler EPS follow-through (i.e., AMZN, MSFT),