US Consumer Pulse Survey: Back-to-School Spending Holds Firm as Macro Confidence Slips

Research evidence excerpt

US Consumer Pulse Survey: Back-to-School Spending Holds Firm as Macro Confidence Slips

Foundation

August 3, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMThematic Alpha | North America Michelle M. Weaver, CFA

Equity Strategist

US Consumer Pulse Survey: Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.comKatie Solovieva +1 212 296-5254

Data Analyst

Katie.Solovieva@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6753

Back-to-School Spending Holds Anna Feldman

Anna.Feldman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3784

Firm as Macro Confidence Slips Stephen C Byrd

Equity Analyst

Stephen.Byrd@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3865

• Economic Confidence Pulls Back, While Household Finances RemainM

Resilient. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer

confidence in the U.S. economic outlook weakened this month, with the net

outlook score falling to -19% (from -10% last month) as fewer consumers

expect the economy to improve and more anticipate deterioration. In

contrast, household financial sentiment remains near recent highs, with a net

outlook of +22% (vs. +24% last month and +10% a year ago).

• Budget Confidence Supports Back-to-School Spending. More than half of

consumers (54%) have already begun or plan to shop for back-to-school this

year, up from 48% last year. Among BTS shoppers, the net spending outlook

stands at +30% (vs. +34% last year), while the majority (82%) are confident

they have sufficient budget to purchase everything they need.

• Financial Conditions Continue to Diverge By Income. Consumers' short-

term spending outlook remains resilient, with a net spending outlook of

+20%, in line with last month and above year-ago levels. Household financial

conditions also remain broadly stable, but continue to diverge by income,

with upper-income consumers reporting greater financial improvement and