1H26 Preview – EBITDA De-Risked, Capital Returns Take Centre Stage

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Preview – EBITDA De-Risked, Capital Returns Take Centre Stage

Idea

August 3, 2026 12:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGlencore PLC | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Preview – EBITDA De- Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-8959

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystRisked, Capital Returns Take Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Centre Stage Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

We expect capital returns to be in focus: we pencil in US$1.6bn, Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Ferdinand Huber

supported by pro forma Net Debt below the US$10bn Research Associate

threshold. FY26 cash costs may move higher, partly offset by Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Adahna Ekoku

fixed-cost absorption of higher HoH volumes. 1H26 EBITDA is Equity Analyst

largely de-risked; SOTP upside and monetisation optionality Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

support OW. Glencore PLC (GLEN.L, GLEN LN)

ADRGLNJ.J

We pencil in US$1.6bn in capital returns. We expect Glencore to generate ~US$1bn Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

in FCFE (on company definition) over the period, including a ~US$3bn NWC build Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

cum-RMIs that would leave Net Debt at US$10.5bn. We calculate a pro forma Net Price target 590p

Debt of US$8.4bn, adjusting for marketing leases and declared but unpaid dividends, Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) 543p

52-Week Range 707-275p

as well as assuming 50% monetisation of the Bunge stake (which we view as Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$83,554

reasonable, given management's indication that it would eventually seek to sell Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$35,257

EV, curr (mn)* US$141,174