2Q26 Production Mixed, Marketing Drives the Beat

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Production Mixed, Marketing Drives the Beat

Update

July 29, 2026 06:46 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGlencore PLC | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Production Mixed, Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-8959

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystMarketing Drives the Beat Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Ferdinand Huber

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Adahna Ekoku

Key Takeaways Equity Analyst

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

1H26 EBITDA run-rate at US$9.9-10bn, 4-5% ahead of VA Consensus, on account

of a strong marketing beat. Glencore PLC (GLEN.L, GLEN LN)

ADRGLNJ.J

2Q26 production was mixed, falling short in copper, met-coal, cobalt and beating Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

in zinc and thermal coal. Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

FY26 guidance was slightly lifted in copper, zinc, and thermal coal, trimmed for Price target 590p

Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) 506p

met-coal. 52-Week Range 707-275p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$78,093

Marketing drives calculated group EBITDA beat. We estimate group EBITDA of US Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$35,756

EV, curr (mn)* US$135,713

$9.9-10.1bn (4-5% ahead of MSe and Visible Alpha consensus); the beat was entirely

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

driven by Marketing at ~US$3.6bn. On the other hand, 1H26 Industrial EBITDA of