July Trade: Semis-Driven Strength to Continue into 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

July Trade: Semis-Driven Strength to Continue into 2H26

Update

August 2, 2026 11:16 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMSouth Korea | Asia Pacific Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

July Trade: Semis-Driven Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited +852 2848-7340

Priyan Mody

EconomistStrength to Continue into 2H26 Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

July trade report remained robust, along with the per-day

momentum accelerating further, driven by semis exports

remaining resilient as well as non-tech exports momentum

accelerating. Trade surplus slightly narrowed on the account of

higher oil imports. Shipment strength set to continue into 2H26. Exhibit 1 : Korea's July exports remained

strong, while high energy imports narrow theData: Exports grew 62.8%Y to US$98.9bn, easing from 70.7% in June due to

surplusworking-day effect, still comfortably exceeding expectations (MSe: 58.0%,

consensus: 60.7%). The per-day exports accelerated to 69.6% with the value 70.0 Korea: Trade Growth Trend 35.0

Trade Balance USD bn (RHS)

Export Growth (%Y, 3mma)

25.0reaching US$4.1bn per day, recording above-US$4bn per day for 3 consecutive 60.050.0 30.0

Import Growth (%Y, 3mma)

months. On a sequential basis, exports declined 3.2%M following June’s outsized 40.030.0 20.015.0

gain, suggesting some normalization after an exceptionally strong 1H26 rather than 20.010.0 10.05.0

a deterioration in underlying demand. Imports rose 26.5%Y to US$68.6bn, while 0.0 0.0

-10.0 -5.0

sequentially increasing (3.8%M), narrowing the goods surplus to US$30.3bn. -20.0 -10.0

-30.0 -15.0

19 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 26

Details: The composition of exports continues to reinforce resilient memory

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, Haver, Morgan Stanley