Overweight Unpacked: Coach Will Slow – Just Not as Much as You Think

Research evidence excerpt

Overweight Unpacked: Coach Will Slow – Just Not as Much as You Think

the brand's e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

recent ~mid-20s% growth is unlikely to persist indefinitely, we believe investors are

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

increasingly asking the wrong question. Rather than debating whether Coach North Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

America normalizes – which we believe is inevitable – we think the more important Q1 1.02 - 1.38a - 1.53

Q2 2.00 - 2.69a - 3.20

question is where Coach's long-term growth profile ultimately settles once it does. Q3 1.03 - 1.66a - 1.96

Q4 1.04 - 1.30 - 1.60

We believe the answer is above consensus expectations for three reasons:

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

#1 Consensus still underestimates Coach International's growth runway. Coach

International has materially outperformed both management's +LDD % Investor Day

expectations & our own original +HSD % Investor Day framework (more here),

leading us to revisit our medium-term assumptions. Our updated international

market share analysis supports a ~low-to-mid-teens % medium-term Coach

International growth profile, with 20%+ within the range of outcomes ( Exhibit 1 ).

Given the market's outsized focus on potential Coach North America deceleration,

the recent acceleration in Coach International's business, and the limited precedent

for North American specialty retailers successfully scaling internationally, we

believe consensus remains too conservative on Coach International's medium-term

growth trajectory. This underpins our above-consensus Coach & TPR growth

outlook (~HSD % vs. ~MSD %).

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,