CIO Brief

Research evidence excerpt

CIO Brief

Cross-Asset Strategy: Weathering El Niño

History suggests that a strong El Niño impact on global markets is usually limited, but the implications look more like a

bottom-up story rather than a macro trade, in our view. Sugar offers the clearest bullish exposure, while copper faces upside

risk from weather-related mining disruptions. Select EM credits – particularly Peru and Costa Rica – carry heightened

downside risk. read more

France Economics, Macro & Equity Strategy: A Comprehensive Framework Ahead of French Elections

France faces elevated policy uncertainty and constrained fiscal reform through the 2027 elections. We now expect a 2027

budget with a 5.2% deficit and an extended corporate tax surcharge; without one, the deficit could reach 5.9%. Tax risk and

wider French government bond spreads support our views for contained underperformance in French government bonds,

buying protection on French bank CDS vs. iTraxx Senior Financials, and short EUR vs. CHF and SEK. read more

Portfolio Strategy: Beyond Asset Allocation

Traditional allocation can leave institutional portfolios static, equity-heavy, and vulnerable when correlations spike. We favor

a Total Portfolio Approach that integrates portfolio risk, separates underlying factors, and diversifies return drivers through

alternatives, hedging, private markets, and judicious leverage. Elevated valuations and unstable correlations strengthen the

case, though implementation requires governance change and tolerance for benchmark underperformance. read more

KEY SECTOR RESEARCH

AI Infrastructure: A Rising Backstop Doesn't Lift All Credits

If confirmed, NVDA’s reported lease backstops and chip financing would mark a strategic shift and a potential positive wild

card for Oracle.