Third-Party Data Temper 2Q Volume Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Third-Party Data Temper 2Q Volume Expectations

Update

July 31, 2026 09:35 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMortgage Originators | North America Jeffrey Adelson, CFA

Equity Analyst

Third-Party Data Tempers 2Q Jeff.Adelson@morganstanley.comBen Bayanfar +1 212 761-1761

Research Associate

Ben.Bayanfar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0649

Volume Expectations Joseph Leeman

Inside Mortgage Finance released estimates for 2Q26 first lien origination Joseph.Leeman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4381

volumes. IMF released its estimates for 2Q26 closed end, first-lien residential Consumer Finance

mortgage origination volumes across the top 50 originators by volume. Estimates North America

Industry View In-Line

point to RKT at $43.5B of first lien originations in 2Q; if we assume an additional $3-

4B of home equity/second lien originations, this would put RKT total 2Q volumes at Exhibit 1 : 2Q26 Closed Origination Estimates

$46.5-47.5B, or 3-6% below Consensus (of $49.2B) and 6-8% below MSe (of 2Q26E

$50.5B). IMF also estimates UWMC volumes of $41.1B, a sharper 10% below Total Originations ($B) RKT UWMC

Consensus (of $45.5B) and 4% below MSe (of $42.9B). IMF estimate (implied) $46.5 - $47.5 $41.1

MSe $50.5 $42.9

Our take: RKT closer to the buyside bogey; UWMC below. Based on 2Q agency Consensus $49.2 $45.5

MBS issuance, we had expected RKT originations to modestly exceed consensus. The

IMF Estimate vsIMF estimates instead suggest weaker closed volumes, highlighting the limitations

MSe -6% to -8% -4%

of issuance as a proxy given securitization timing and product mix. We do have to Consensus -3% to -6% -10%

caveat that IMF estimates are not always accurate: in 1Q, actual results were 5-10%

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research

different than IMF estimates.