F3/27 1Q Results: Any Correction in Share Price Would Be a Buying Opportunity

First-page research excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

July 31, 2026 05:14 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

East Japan Railway (9020) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Any

Correction in Share Price Would

Be a Buying Opportunity

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

East Japan Railway (9020.T)

From

To

East Japan Railway (9020.T, 9020 JT)

Price Target

¥3,700

¥3,820

Railways | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

In-line

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We expect an upward revision to guidance and the

announcement of a dividend hike (based on 37% payout ratio)

during F3/27 2Q results, and thus consider any share price

correction a buying opportunity.

Key Takeaways

F3/27 1Q OP was ¥125.5bn, roughly in line with our forecast of ¥122.2bn.

As we had previously expected, the company did not announce any major

corporate actions.

We slightly adjust our forecasts and PT in light of the F3/27 1Q results. We stay

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥3,820

4

¥3,676

¥4,150.5

2.6

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

3,084.7 3,276.0 3,393.0 3,497.0

414.3 485.1 504.0 522.0

351.6 413.2 427.4 444.0

247.8 288.2 298.2 309.8

219.5 255.3 266.3 279.6

- 256.6 267.4 278.3

219.4 255.3 266.3 279.6

- 256.6 267.4 278.3

16.5

14.4

13.8

13.1

1.3

1.2

8.7

9.5

9.2

9.5

9.6

9.3

9.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

EW.

Recommended action: Neutral: As at other companies, we estimate that F3/27 1Q

OP greatly overshot guidance, but the company did not announce any major

…