Macro vs Micro: Metals Outlook

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July 31, 2026 04:59 PM GMT

Commodity Matters | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Macro vs Micro: Metals Outlook

Ben Kelson

Research Associate

Three weeks on from our latest price deck, we publish our latest

slide deck with the key charts for each metal, covering base,

precious, battery and bulk commodities.

Charlotte Firkins

Commodities Strategist

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Key Takeaways

LME copper inventories are drawing as China and the US pull in metal, driving the

cash-3m spread into backwardation.

Chinese aluminium exports surged in June, driven by strong ex-China prices.

Gold is trading well, considering where real yields are. Central bank buying was

strong in Q2, but ETFs are still missing.

Uranium spot and contracting volumes were up 34% YoY in 1H26, and term prices

hit 18-year highs.

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