Price-Cost Squeeze Pushes Recovery Further Out

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 04:25 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Taylor Wimpey PLC | Europe

Peter Ajose-Adeogun

Equity Analyst

Price-Cost Squeeze Pushes

Recovery Further Out

Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Taylor Wimpey PLC (TW.L, TW/ LN)

What’s Changed

Building & Construction | United Kingdom

Taylor Wimpey PLC (TW.L)

From

To

Price Target

65p

60p

The call reinforced that the earnings recovery is moving further

out. Pricing is c.2% lower, build costs are rising 3-4% and

operating costs remain sticky. We cut FY26-28 EBIT 12%/7%/4%.

Shares optically cheap (0.7x P/B) but we see limited scope for

upgrades or re-rating. GBp 60 PT. Underweight.

Key Takeaways

July trading shows no demand inflection: affordability remains stretched,

conversion is taking longer and underlying pricing is c.2% lower...

...and 3-4% build cost inflation points to further margin pressure through H2 and

limited recovery into FY27.

We cut FY26-28 EBIT 12%/7%/4%; FY26 EBIT of £281m is -12% below consensus,

which has yet to reflect the latest margin and cost guidance.

The new 4% of NAV payout policy cuts FY26 DPS to 2.4p, 65% below consensus,

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Underweight

In-Line

60p

78p

117-74p

£2,785

£184

£2,878

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Sales / Revenue

(£mn)**

EBIT (£mn)**

EPS (p)**

ModelWare EPS (p)

Prior EPS (p)**

EPS (p)§

P/E**

P/BV

DPS (p)

Div yld (%)

ROE (%)**

3,845

3,801

4,136

4,451

421

7.9

13.7

0.9

7.6

7.1

6.3

285

5.4

6.0

5.9

14.5

0.7

2.4

3.0

4.5

323

5.9

6.5

6.3

13.2

0.6

2.5

3.2

4.9

386

7.4

8.0

7.6

10.5

0.6

2.6

3.3

5.9

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

and signals a longer cash generation trough.

Cheap at 0.7x P/B, but we think it is warranted; margin recovery is delayed and

upgrade potential limited. Reiterate Underweight, GBP 60 PT.

…